The Florida Gators and LSU Tigers equally come into this Saturdays game with statement victories.
LSU defeat the Longhorns per week 2 and moved to Texas. The Gators stifled then-No. 7 Auburn in the Swamp weekend. However, in this weeks matchup in Death Valley, the two teams seem to take a spot in the race more than to College Football Playoff.
The defense of florida leads the way in their opinion. They have given that the 8th-fewest offensive touchdowns (5), and havent given up a stage from the 4th quarter because their opener. Auburn QB Bo Nix flustered since he went 11 for 27 with three INTs into making decisions that were several a week.
However, Joe Burrow isnt Nix. He is a veteran quarterback, and it has led LSU. Theyve averaged 54.6 points-per-game, the maximum in college football. This includes the 45 they dumped on the street on Texas.
With the roar of all Death Valley the Gators come in as underdogs on BetNow. Would the No. cover the spread and 5 grading shield keep this near? Or will the No. 2 passing offense and Burrow keep rolling and win the bet? Here is the breakdown.
Theres very little doubt in Burrows ability anymore. Hes converted into a Heisman candidate, acquiring a immaculate 22/3 TD/INT ratio and 11.5 yards-per-attempt (3rd in the FBS).
He is also working with a few of the receiving groups in the country. The trio of JaMarr Chase, Justin Jefferson, along with Terrace Marshall Jr. have combined for 19 touchdowns along with 73 receptions, with averages above 15 YPC for three.
Jefferson has good length with his 63 frame, and it has mastered in some huge games. Chase is a physical presence on the opposite side. Marshall Jr. will sit until November with a foot injury, but Derrick Dillon is an experienced target that can fill the area. Its all part of a passing game thats Burrow in a 78.4% completion percentage.
Theyll face undoubtedly the DB unit they have played throughout the year. Northwestern State is a FCS group, but here are the yards-per-attempt composed by the additional competitors of LSU: Texas 124th Georgia Southern 111th, Vanderbilt 128th, and Utah State 103rd.
Florida currently sits in 33rd, even though its safe to say theyve yet to perform a QB of all the caliber of Burrow. They have played two FCS QBs, a true freshman (Nix), a redshirt freshman making his first start (Jarren Williams, Miami), and Still, C.J. Henderson has been preseason All-American who is living up to his own billing. Shawn Davis generates a ton of havoc at the secondary (111 yards on three INTs). Marco Wilson is somewhat on irregular so far in the other corner spot, but still has a ceiling.
Burrow will face a ominous pass-rush, which will be healthy for the first time since their 10 sacks versus Miami. Jabari Zuniga, considered to function as very best is coming back from injury. With him on one side along with Jonathan Greenard (4.0 sacks/6.5 TKFL) about the flip side, LSUs 63rd-ranked sack rate in their o-line will be analyzed.
Since Kyle Trask substituted Feleipe Franks (ankle injury) since Floridas quarterback, the Gators have outscored opponents 115-16.
Even though the newest QB have to enhance his awareness in the pocket, then he has yet to get flustered by an opposing defensive line. Auburns is arguably the very best in the country, and ranks 11th in defensive line yards, according to Football Outsiders.
LSU is ranked 31st and is now 85th in bag rate. Theyll rely upon blitzing LBs to assist throw Trask off his game. Even the Florida QB is confident in the pocket but is not out of it. He also sprained a knee in the last match and wore a leg brace when he reentered the match.
Together with the LBs All-American security Grant Delpit should develop big in policy. He likely will face off against a matchup nightmare in Florida TE Kyle Pitts (25 receptions). Neutralizing Pitts (65-240lbs, 4.6 40-yard dashboard ) is critical to LSUs success on D.
LSU–like Floridas secondary–is regarded as DBU for the talent they possess on their defenses outside. Derek Stingley Jr. is continuing this legacy with performances which should land him around the All-Freshman team, if not longer, in 2019.
On the other side of him would likely soon be Kristian Fulton, that allowed the smallest quantity of first downs last year out of returning FBS corners. Although this group is now in passing yards allowed per-game 69th, itll be given a chance against a driven Trask.
Balance is going to be crucial as for Florida, that hasnt got their running game going this year. Lamical Perine broke a tackle at the point on his approach to an 88-yard TD run . Even with this, the Florida o-line ranks 113th in line yards and also can be going up from the No. 1 d-line in terms of power success (short-yardage situations).
Even though the LSU front might not be powerful. But Florida only compiles 3.66 YPA on the floor, and thats including Perines long term and a 76-yard receiver sweep which shut from the Kentucky game.
When they dont buy Perine or Dameon Pierce going consistently, it places a lot of pressure on Trask in a hostile environment.
Florida has earned admiration after week from the school football world. And while I do not expect them to come out at Death Valley with a win against LSU, I really do see this sport remaining many.
LSUs offense made strides, and Burrow is just one of the QBs in the FBS. But LSU isnt likely to install 45 or anything near this against a defense whos known at all 3 levels. Their pass-rush has developed with Greenard wreaking havoc.
Since the team has relied on them far too much to change the wave in matches, the Gators defense will probably work out over time. Marco Wilson is going to be the subject against Jefferson or the Chase.
However, I do not anticipate this until late in the fourth quarter. Keeping the game in enough of a slog until then makes Florida the appropriate wager on Saturday.
Prediction: LSU (30) — Florida (20)